Horse racing newsletter: Baffert’s abundance of riches

Hello, my name is John Cherwa, and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we give you a Ron Flatter, Rob Henie, Matt Dinerman trifecta.

Is it my imagination, but do things seems to be feeling more normal? Lone Star Park joined the racing schedule on Friday, and Santa Anita and Churchill Downs seem to be hitting their strides. A lot of tracks, such as Santa Anita, will be on a four-day week for the first time in a long time.

We’ll be monitoring how things go over the weekend. Now, on to our favorite features.

Ron Flatter’s weekly insights

It’s time for our weekly contribution from Ron Flatter of the Vegas Stats and Information Network. He offers up some comments about the wagering problems in Nevada. Ron, what insights do you have?

“In the new world order that has turned the Triple Crown from a five-week pop quiz into a 3½-month elective course, has Bob Baffert become Tiger Woods?

“It is not that wild a premise. The coronavirus has turned the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes — sorry, the Belmont, Derby and Preakness — into a game of three-card monte. And Baffert is the elusive money card.

“Everybody wants him. And in this case ‘everybody’ means the rearranged classics. They are like golf tournaments that turned from nothing special to must-see TV when Tiger showed up. While there is only one of Tiger to go around, Baffert has the deepest pool of 3-year-olds in the country. Even then, though, Baffert can only send his horses to so many places.

“With Charlatan and Nadal seemingly locks to be in the Kentucky Derby, Baffert’s plan is to send them to the Belmont Stakes on June 20. But he is not sending Authentic to this year’s first classic, if that is still what it is. It is, after all, the first to go only one turn in 100 years and the first to be shorter than 9½ furlongs in 96 years.

“In a text response this week Baffert confirmed that Authentic will stay home and try to build his Kentucky Derby points June 6 in the Santa Anita Derby. That is while the other two-thirds of his big three will be getting ready for their visit to New York, where there are even more Derby points but against tougher competition such as Florida Derby winner Tiz The Law.

“But then what? And what about unraced colts like Cézanne who could yet become the next Arrogate? Their invitations will no doubt arrive at Barn 5 at Santa Anita, delivered on bended knee not only to Baffert but to his cast of clients.

“Characters named Gavin and Jack and Laurie and Sol and Jason and Fred and John and Ben and Elliot are in the winner’s circle photos of Authentic and Charlatan. Since they own both, it seems unlikely that those two horses will be seen in the same starting gate at the same time before Sept. 5 at Churchill Downs. Come to think of it, they have not even been in any given starting gate in the same month.

“Since Authentic goes next, so then is the decision on where he goes after he is re-matched in two weeks with Honor A. P., himself the object of a tug-of-war between the Santa Anita Derby and the Belmont Stakes. That was before John Shirreffs flexed his loyalty to Southern California.

“A look six weeks later to July 18 reveals the Baffert Invitational that is sometimes known as the Haskell. Whether a trip to Max’s Hot Dogs on the Jersey Shore may or may not be prudent or even allowed remains to be determined by Baffert. Or Gov. Phil Murphy. But doesn’t a date at Monmouth Park seem a perfect fit for Authentic to deliver Baffert his ninth Haskell win? The Derby would then come seven weeks later.

“But wait. There might be an option July 11. The buzz coming out of Kentucky is that the Blue Grass Stakes may be rescheduled for that day. It would be part of a pop-up meet for which Keeneland would send a satchel full of money to Ellis Park, which actually has dibs on that date. But it has been 14 years since Baffert won the Blue Grass with Sinister Minister. So maybe not for him.

“More likely, though, will be yet-to-be-scheduled opportunities at Saratoga as well as the Shared Belief Stakes at Del Mar. That race has already been penciled in as a second-level points prep for the Derby. Because of that, it is a safe bet that it will be moved much earlier than its usual date in late August, and it seems likely that Baffert would walk a horse over there.

“Saratoga did not have any races listed yet on the new road to the Derby, but that is only because they have not been written into a conditions book yet. The Travers has been a breeding ground for late-blooming Baffert champions — see Arrogate in 2016 and West Coast in 2017. The New York Racing Assn. has a history of publicly wooing Baffert; at least it did when Chris Kay ran the joint. David O’Rourke might not be as obvious about it, but there is no doubt that he would love to welcome any of the big three. Or maybe Cézanne.

“Even after the Belmont and, ahem, other Derby preps are run, it stands to reason that Churchill Downs and the Stronach Group will be in recruiting mode for the Bafferts and pretty much every other trainer with a hot horse. Yes, even Churchill. Think about what would happen if Charlatan and Nadal don’t duplicate their springtime form this summer. In that seemingly unlikely circumstance, someone from Louisville might be texting Baffert to make sure everything was all right.

“And where will the Preakness be left if the horse that wins the Belmont does not then win the Derby? Baffert has won the Preakness seven times, but he is only 2-for-13 when he does not take a Derby winner to Pimlico. Suddenly the crab cakes would not be much of a lure in the fall. Preak who?

“The idea that track executives must beg trainers to bring their horses to America’s three biggest traditional races might come off as unseemly. That is the result of 72 years of scheduling inertia being disrupted by modern-day pestilence.

“Maybe it is just one more reason to put an asterisk on this year’s Triple Crown, sweep or no sweep. Come to think of it, this may be the first year that the Preakness will award actual black-eyed Susans to the winner rather than the painted daisies made necessary by botanical reality. And don’t black-eyed Susans look like asterisks?”

Ron Flatter is a host and reporter who covers horse racing for the Vegas Stats & Information Network, which is available at SiriusXM 204 and to subscribers at VSiN.com. He also hosts the Ron Flatter Racing Pod. On the current episode, racing journalist and publicist Jennie Rees discusses the new Triple Crown schedule, trainer Greg Foley talks about Major Fed’s bid to win Saturday’s Matt Winn Stakes, and Duane Colucci of the Rampart Race and Sportsbook and Kate Hunter in Japan handicap weekend races in Kentucky and Tokyo. Just click here.

Weekly handicapping lesson

It’s time for our weekly handicapping lesson from Rob Henie of the WCHR (West Coast Handicapping Report) and the ECHR (East Coast Handicapping Report). Today’s analysis comes from the sixth race at Santa Anita and incorporates some handicapping angles into the mix. Rob, take it away.

“This is a $12,500 N2L at six furlongs, a bottom-level race around here, and regardless of the track, here’s the right way we believe to approach a cheap N2L event. We mentioned this angle Friday yesterday in the ECHR, with regard to the second race at Churchill Downs, and it produced a decent little winner at 3-1. We’re likely looking at a similar price Saturday with our top selection MIDNIGHT GARDEN (#1).

Recent maiden winners, are often the best type of runners to back with regard to the cheaper N2L type of races, those consisting of horses who have only a maiden victory to their credit. The mentality of many handicappers with regard to these cheap non-winners of two events is just so backwards. Here’s what we mean — many handicappers downplay the recent maiden winner, regardless of the level, giving them less credence than even multiple losers at this level. These are horses who’ve already been defeated at this same N2L condition, many having lost numerous times.

Think about that for a second. Why should a horse coming off a possible career catalyst maiden win, where confidence was gained finishing down the lane in front of the others, be looked at in a more negative light than a horse whose only win to their own credit was also a maiden win? Bottom line is, would you rather back a proven multiple loser, or a recent maiden winner with some sense of confidence and momentum? Let’s look for a good effort on Saturday. REAL GOOD DEAL (#3) comes off a brief freshening, then again, most of the horse population is in the same situation. This is a good thing, lots of fresh runners, pretty refreshing actually. Flavien Prat is riding better than we’ve ever seen him, and Saturday is riding for fellow Frenchman Powell, actually his guardian when Flavien first arrived in the U.S. They are a solid team together, and we need to note, though 1-for-8 lifetime, this filly has run well in her only two dirt starts to date, including off the freshening last July at Sacramento.The winner comes from this pair.

“Hot / Cold Race Trends: none

“Win Contenders (order of preference): 1-3

“X Out Runners (eliminating on the win end): 5,7

“Negative Notes: 7 Drop the Mic - Can’t remember the last time a runner won here at Santa Anita out of a Zia race?

“TOP PICK: MIDNIGHT GARDEN (#1 7-2 Roman)

“SECOND CHOICE: REAL GOOD DEAL (#3 5-2 Prat)”

The West Coast Handicapping Report can be found at www.westcoasthorseracing.com It has been endorsed by leading trainers, handicappers and industry sources.

Santa Anita review

Hit the Road, the only 3-year-old in the race, rallied from mid-pack to win the featured $53,000 allowance/optional claimer for horses going a mile on the turf. The Dan Blacker-trained colt won by three-quarters of a length at decent odds of $14.20, $8.00 and $4.20. Maestro Dearte, at 35-1, finished second and the formerly undefeated favorite, Odysseus, finished third.

“He was ready to go moving into the turn, but I wanted to save ground and wait a bit,” winning jockey Umberto Rispoli told Mike Willman of Santa Anita. “This course is firm, so I didn’t want to be too far back, but we got lucky and had a perfect trip. The way he finished, I think he’s going to improve off of this race.”

Santa Anita preview

There are two graded stakes on Saturday’s nine-race card beginning at 12:30 p.m. There are also two allowance/optional claimers and a pair of maiden specials. Four of the races, including both stakes, are on the turf.

Here’s a look at the stakes.

Grade 3 $100,000 Daytona Stakes: This is a 5 ½-furlong turf race for horses 4 and up. The favorite, at 2-1, is Wildman Jack for trainer Doug O’Neill and jockey Mike Smith. This 4-year-old gelding is coming off a pair of races in Dubai including a 4¾-length win in the $350,000 Nad Al Sheba Turf Sprint. He’s won three of seven starts, with two seconds and a third and a fourth. This will be Smith’s first race on the horse.

The second favorite is Cistron at 5-2 for John Sadler and Victor Espinoza. This 6-year-old colt has won three of his last four starts, all graded stakes. Among those is a Grade 1 win in the Bing Crosby at Del Mar. He has won six of his 28 starts with seven seconds and six thirds and took home $760,719 in purse money. Post is listed as 2:39 p.m.

Grade 2 $200,000 Charles Whittingham Stakes: At 1¼ miles on the turf, this race starts slightly up the hill on the downhill course. There is a strong favorite in United at 6-5. He almost won the Breeders’ Cup Turf last year at Santa Anita but was caught at the wire by horse of the year Bricks and Mortar. He’s also coming off a win in the San Marcos. He’s won four of 12 lifetime starts. Richard Mandella is the trainer Flavien Prat will ride.

There are two horses on Jon White’s morning line at 5-2. There is Originaire for Jeff Mullins and Umberto Rispoli. He is coming off an allowance win but has yet to win a stakes race. The other second favorite is Rockemperor for Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz Jr. He is winless in three starts in the U.S. but won two of seven in France. What’s interesting is that he’s a shipper for Brown and this is Ortiz’s only ride on Saturday’s card. He’s listed on a Peter Miller allowance horse on Sunday. But, he’s on three Chad Brown horses on Monday’s 11-race card, including two Grade 1s.

Post on Saturday is around 4:18 p.m.

Ciaran Thornton’s SA pick of the day

RACE ONE: No. 3 Big Cheddar (15-1)

Big Cheddar is what we look to make Saturday on this 15-1 morning-line horse from trainer Doug O’Neill. Cheddar ran second at this distance here in January and since then has raced on all-weather up North and six furlongs on dirt at Oaklawn Park last month. This horse has as much speed as the favorite and also has a great closing kick. If jockey Tiago Pereira sticks to plan and keeps the horse involved early we will start the Saturday card off with a big value win.

Friday’s result: Dorita’s Lemon went off at 4-1, not as good a value as I wanted, but that’s ‘cause everyone reads John’s newsletter now! Dorita’s cruised to an easy gate-to-wire win with the finish line coming early to win the photo. Dorita’s Lemon paid $10.20 for the win.

Ciaran Thornton is the handicapper for Californiapick4.com, which offers daily full card picks, longshots of the day, best bets of the day.

Golden Gate weekend preview

Here’s our weekly look at the best racing going on at Golden Gate Fields. We’re delighted to have race caller and all-around good guy Matt Dinerman as our host for previews and other musings. So, take it away, Matt.

“Three more race days at Golden Gate Fields this week, highlighted by Monday’s $100,000 All American Stakes for 3-year-olds and up going 1 1/16 miles on the Tapeta. There are 11 races on Monday with the eighth race, the All American, starting the late Pick 4. Seven have entered with a trio of locals looking to take the most money in the betting. There is Grade 2 placed gelding Camino Del Paraiso, the improving older horse Kiwi’s Dream, and synthetic specialist Builder. Also entered is Premium Forest, who makes his first start for the red-hot Isidro Tamayo barn.

“Restrainedvengence returns to the Bay Area from Southern California trainer Val Brinkerhoff and may go off favored. He won the Rolling Green Stakes at Golden Gate on grass in August 2019 and has since rattled off a pair of wins in New Mexico stakes races. He also ran second in the Grade 2 City of Hope Mile last year at Santa Anita, one of the best races of his career. Supplemental entrants Bold Endeavor and Engram round out the field.

“The first two ‘baby races’ of the year take place on Saturday and Sunday. The fourth race on Saturday, a 4 1/2-furlong sprint for 2-year-old fillies, features two who have shown some promise in the mornings. I’m So Anna (6-5 morning line) is a daughter of Fast Anna that has worked quickly prepping for her career debut for trainer Steve Sherman. Miss Ever Ready (8-5) is a filly by More Than Ready who sports sharp half mile drills leading up to her first career race. The latter filly, a Brendan Galvin-trained entrant, will be ridden by top Golden Gate jockey Juan Hernandez.

“Sunday’s 4 1/2-furlong sprint for 2-year-olds attracts a handful of Southern California-trained contenders. Doug O’Neill sends the Point of Entry colt Dennis Celery while Andrew Lerner sends up a pair in Weapon, a $50,000 sale purchase by Dialed In, and Magnificent Dawn, a $40,000 buy by freshman sire Anchor Down. Luis Mendez, known to produce fast 2-year-olds in Southern California, is campaigned by Brony Boy, a son of Street Boss.

“Also note that turf racing is back in the Bay Area. Every winter, Golden Gate Fields takes January through late April off from turf racing. Our co-features on Saturday and Sunday are two allowance route races on grass for first-level allowance runners, with the fillies and mares set to race in Saturday’s seventh, while the colts and geldings go in the eighth on Sunday.”

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth $100,000 or more on Saturday. All times PST.

1:08 Churchill (7): $100,000 Shawnee Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Dunbar Road (4-5)

1:40 Churchill (8): $100,000 Tepin Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 1 mile on turf. Favorites: (Sharing, Alms 3-1)

2:12 Churchill (9): $100,000 Blame Stakes, 4 and up, 1 mile. Favorite: Owendale (3-1)

2:39 Santa Anita (5): Grade 3 $100,000 Daytona Stakes, 4 and up, 5 ½ furlongs on turf. Favorite: Wildman Jack (2-1)

2:44 Churchill (10): Grade 3 $150,000 Matt Winn Stakes, 3-year-olds, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Maxfield (5-2)

3:16 Churchill (11): $100,000 War Chant Stakes, 3-year-olds, 1 mile on turf. Favorite: Field Pass (4-1)

4:18 Santa Anita (8): Grade 2 $200,000 Charles Whittingham Stakes, 3 and up, 1 ¼ miles on turf. Favorite: United (6-5)

Chris Wade’s LA pick of the day

RACE SIX: No. 2 BF Field Notes (5-1)

He is no stranger to finding trouble, but he has earned competitive figures in his last two efforts when trouble and track variant are factored in. In his last outing, BF Field Notes was fractious in the gate prior to being bumped back at the start and losing more than a length and a half to the eventual winner. The gelding still put forth a big run past the gap followed by a solid finish nearing the wire while under a hold. The figure earned puts this runner in the mix at a medium price for a solid jockey/trainer (21%) combo.

Now the stars of the show, Friday’s results and Saturday’s entries.