Panama to Go to Polls on Reelection

PANAMA CITY — At best, the struggle is between continuity in a time of crisis and the democratic tradition of handing over the reins of government to a successor. At worst, it’s about lust for power and jealousy.

By Sunday, Panamanians must sort the lofty ideals from the personal ambitions to decide in a referendum whether their presidents--particularly their current president, Ernesto Perez Balladares--can run for reelection.

Constitutional provisions in effect since 1928 forbid presidents from holding consecutive terms. The idea was to break with Panama’s tradition of strongman rule by forcing presidents to leave office after five years.

Now, critics in both Panama and the United States warn that reinstating reelection would threaten the fragile democracy established at the cost of hundreds of U.S. and Panamanian lives lost when dictator Gen. Manuel A. Noriega was ousted from power by a 1989 U.S. invasion and arrested on drug-trafficking charges. They point out that Peru permitted reelection earlier in the decade and that its reelected president appears to be positioning himself to seek a third term.

“Recent experience has created the perception among many political groups that reelection in Latin America is a type of civilian dictatorship,” said former legislator Alfredo Oranges, a member of the president’s party who opposes changing the constitution. Perez Balladares’ promise Wednesday not to run a third time has done little to assuage such concerns.

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Opponents go so far as to claim that reelection may engender an authoritarian government in Panama, endangering the effective administration of the Panama Canal, which will be turned over to Panamanian control Dec. 31, 1999--during the term of the president elected here in May of that year.

More sanguine observers note that Panama is following the legal procedures for amending the constitution to allow reelection. By that reasoning, whichever way the vote goes will be a triumph for democracy.

Still, opposition leaders and foreign diplomats worry that by placing too high a priority on reelection, Perez Balladares has allowed other issues to slide, to Panama’s detriment. Notably, negotiations on a center that would maintain a U.S. military presence here after the canal hand-over have stalled because “nobody is out there defending it,” according to a source in Panama.

Locating the Multilateral Counter-narcotics Center, or MCC, in Panama appears unlikely now, a U.S. official said. The American insistence on a full-service center has come into conflict with Panamanian concerns about sovereignty, born of nearly a century of U.S. domination, including the December 1989 invasion.

“It has become much more complicated because of the high gear of a political campaign,” the official said. For the referendum, the president needs the support of those who reject the idea of the center, but he also wants the votes of those who support it, according to the official.

“Not having made a decision doesn’t alienate either of them,” he said. Meanwhile, time may have run out. “There may have been a miscalculation as to whether the MCC was available indefinitely,” the official said.

Perez Balladares said negotiations are continuing. In fact, the Panamanian government delivered a proposal to Washington as recently as two weeks ago. Nevertheless, the U.S. Congress has authorized the search for another site because months of talks have produced no agreement with Panama.

“I still think that a multilateral center is a good idea,” Perez Balladares said. “But what we have to be sure is that it is a multilateral center and not a source of conflict with the United States.”

The United States wants to include other missions in addition to anti-drug training, which Panama contends would turn the center into a military base. “That might be possible in Costa Rica or Honduras as part of a multinational center. But, because of Panama’s historic sensitivity, it is not possible in Panama, and that is the problem,” the president said.

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Panamanians have been promised that when the Panama Canal is turned over to them and the U.S. troops are withdrawn, 90 years of U.S. meddling will also end. And Perez Balladares’ neutral stance has effectively kept the anti-drug center from becoming an issue in this election.

Sunday’s vote theoretically is a referendum on changing the constitution. But it has become a referendum on Perez Balladares’ administration, which has sold off government-owned companies and slashed import tariffs, causing job losses that the president insists are needed to make Panama competitive in a global economy. In the short term, however, the changes have devastated agriculture, salt production and other sectors of the economy.

“This is a referendum with a name, a last name and a nickname,” said Ricardo Arias Calderon, a Christian Democratic Party leader, referring to the president’s moniker, Toro, or Bull.

Reelection opponents distribute bumper stickers showing a bull with a red diagonal stripe across it--No Bull--and a bull’s skull on a pole was the centerpiece of recent street-corner rallies.

“We have to demonstrate, because we just got rid of one dictator and we do not want this to become a civilian dictatorship,” Nani de Guillen, 45, said as she waved the impaled skull at passing traffic.

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Perez Balladares, a 52-year-old Notre Dame graduate, said that such demonstrations prove his point: “They adorn it with a lot of ideas and proposals, but they are really trying to eliminate my candidacy because they feel I can beat them again.”

The white-haired, husky president has walked miles, surrounded by bodyguards, drumming up support for the amendment.

Most crowds are excited to see the president--and grab a free T-shirt emblazoned with a bright blue “Si.” But recently--as he passed the pastel-colored “Popsicle apartments” built by Americans in the impoverished El Chorrillo neighborhood to replace housing destroyed in the U.S. invasion--Perez Balladares was accosted by hecklers.

“I want a job, not a T-shirt,” shouted one man, pushing his way through the crowd.

Juan de Leon, a 35-year-old bus driver and father of two children, watched the march from the stoop of his apartment house. “The president has given us highways, but what do we want with highways?” he asked. “We want jobs. . . . We thought we couldn’t be any poorer, but we are getting poorer.”

Perez Balladares estimated that he spends about 30% of his time in support of the constitutional amendment. “I want to finish up the restructuring projects that we have started and to begin a second wave of reforms by improving the administration of justice and modernizing education,” he said.

“Above all, I want to be sure that the structural changes have the effects that we want for the poorest people, that they feel the positive effects of the free market in a more efficient distribution of goods . . . not just in unemployment.”

Although many polls show that a majority of Panamanians oppose reelection, it is not clear whether enough of the 1.5 million voters object sufficiently to come out in force on election day to defeat the measure. To pass, the proposal must receive the support of 50% plus one of those casting ballots.

The well-organized machine of Perez Balladares’ party--the Democratic Revolutionary Party, or PRD--is being pitted against a fragmented opposition.

Fractiousness allowed Perez Balladares to win the presidency with slightly more than one-third of the vote four years ago. “In 1994, we were divided, with seven presidential candidates, and that is why we have a PRD government today,” said Mireya Moscoso, who was the second-place candidate in those elections.

“Eight parties are united . . . against reelection,” she said as she led a “No” march through a working-class neighborhood. “The only thing we have divided are the tasks: Some of us are beating the pavement, others are debating in the universities, and others are on television, but we are united.”

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Acrimony has risen as the polling date approaches. The capital’s independent mayor, Mayin Correa, has said she will retire from politics if the referendum wins--”because it will prove that Panamanians are idiots.”

Ramon Arias, a nephew of the Christian Democratic leader, recently learned just how high emotions surrounding the issue are when he removed “Si” posters from a building that his family owns in the colonial section of Panama City. He was later arrested and sentenced to 40 days in jail or a $40 fine for harassment.

“This is why people like me are opposed to reelection,” he said. “We would be perpetuating in power people who do not want to comply with the law. . . . This is dangerous for the country.”