Rationing Showdown : Will Southlanders Wilt Under the Heat of Summer as the Burdens of Conservation Get Tougher?

It was early summer, 1990, and things were going famously for Don Flowers.

The city of Sacramento had just launched a water conservation campaign and Flowers, its coordinator, had cause to be gleeful as capital residents responded by cutting consumption 25%--more than the amount called for under the mandatory program.

Then came August. Temperatures soared. Garden greenery wilted. Grass turned brown. Terrified of losing their landscaping, Sacramento residents opened the spigot. By month’s end, the city’s once impressive level of water savings had evaporated to a lowly 8.5%.

“It was awful, and of course I initially took it very personally,” Flowers said glumly. “Once the heat hit, it seemed to fry people’s brains to a certain extent. . . . They saw a plant droop, and they panicked and watered like crazy.”

For Southern California water managers approaching their first summer of rationing, Sacramento’s experience is an unsettling reminder of what can happen when the hot season hits.

So far, Southlanders have embraced water rationing with gusto, with many cities--Los Angeles among them--far exceeding their conservation goals. But come July, when the blossoms slump on their stems and the lawn loses its luster, will residents turn gluttonous and start running the sprinklers around the clock?

“I don’t think so,” one expert, Jerry Gewe of the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power, said with a good measure of confidence. “I’m sure we’ll see a dip (in conservation levels), but . . . I think people will stick with the program through the summer.”

Ed Thornhill at the Metropolitan Water District, Southern California’s giant water wholesaler, agreed: “I can’t make a prediction, but I think people’s response (heretofore) has been encouraging. They’re changing their habits, taking shorter showers. In summer, it’s tough. But people understand this drought has been going on for five years.”

Despite Sacramento’s experience, there is ample evidence to support these optimistic conclusions. Several regions with long-established rationing programs report that their water savings typically increase during summer.

“In March of last year, our use was down 15% (compared to) the level in 1987, our base year,” said Teddy Morse, spokeswoman for the Santa Clara Valley Water District, which serves 1.5 million residents south of San Francisco. “By midsummer, we were up around 30% or 35%.”

A similar trend occurred in Bay Area cities such as Oakland and in Goleta, north of Santa Barbara. Goleta, one of the first communities to institute rationing during the current drought, had a 42% drop in water consumption last August compared to the expected water use, but saw the conservation level slip to 27% in October.

There are some simple explanations. For starters, most rationing programs require reductions from a so-called base year level. For the DWP’s customers in Los Angeles, that means a household’s use of water this July must be 15% lower than it was during July, 1986. Because overall water use goes up dramatically during summer, trimming 15% in July will be easier than achieving the same reduction in December, when the amount of water used per capita is much less.

“It may seem strange, but it’s easier to meet rationing goals in the summer because you’re being asked to reduce against a much larger (base) number,” said Larry Farwell, Goleta’s water conservation coordinator.

Moreover, experts say, the opportunities for conserving water multiply during summer, a time when water consumption in Los Angeles and most balmy regions more than doubles.

By sprinkling lawns less frequently, using “moisture probes” to determine whether plants really need a drink, and selecting vegetation that holds up well in heat, residents can easily cut usage by 15%, said John Nelson, general manager of the North Marin Water District and a conservation expert.

“There’s a lot of slack and waste in outside water use, and it’s relatively easy to see and fix,” said Dick Bennett, water conservation administrator for the East Bay Municipal Utility District, where the rationing program emphasizes summer conservation. “The potential for savings is much greater than it is with indoor behavioral changes, and it’s the sort of thing that doesn’t hurt your quality of life.”

Since mandatory rationing returned to Southern California this year, consumers in most areas have done a commendable job of altering habits to meet targets set by their communities, figures show.

The 27 cities and agencies served by the MWD slashed demand by 44% in February and March, saving billions of gallons more than the amount mandated under the district’s mandatory cutbacks. For April, the reduction is projected to be as high as 53%, MWD spokesman Bob Gomperz said.

In Los Angeles, the 640,000 customers served by the DWP have conserved at more than twice the rate required since rationing was instituted March 1. Customers reduced consumption by an average of 25% during March and April, a period in which the city asked them to cut use 10% over 1986 levels. On May 1, that rationing target rose to 15%.

Despite the encouraging performance and historical evidence in other parts of California, water agency officials are taking no chances. With summer near, they are redoubling their efforts to make sure consumers have heard the all-important message--the 5-year-old drought is alive and well despite spring rains.

Advertisements and billboards--part of MWD’s $3.5-million advertising campaign--have begun a conservation message that will continue through September.

The DWP is sponsoring a two-day gardening exposition this month to help homeowners choose drought-tolerant landscaping and revise irrigation practices to cope with water restrictions.

On the state level, two organizations teamed up with the Department of Water Resources this month to launch the California Water Awareness Campaign, an effort to reinforce the message that water is a scarce resource.

“Summer is definitely on everyone’s minds, and people are gearing up for it now,” said Jennifer Persike of the Assn. of California Water Agencies, one of the campaign’s sponsors. “We need to continually remind people to keep up the good work, that the rain in March did not make up for five years of clear skies and dry weather.”